IF THESE BRIDGES WERE BUILT TODAY...

The following cost estimates are based on the 12-mile-long parallel trestle project on the Chesapeake Bay-Bridge Tunnel in Virginia (completed in 1997), the 3-mile-long Tappan Zee Bridge replacement project (completed in 2017), and the 1-mile-long cable-stay Harbor Bridge in Corpus Christi, Texas (scheduled completion in 2025). The data have been adjusted to reflect higher construction and right-of-way costs in the New York metropolitan area. Scott Kozel, webmaster of the "Roads to the Future" and "Pennways" web sites, provided the original cost data for the Chesapeake Bay-Bridge Tunnel project.

These projections are based on 2023 estimates. All projections assume a 2.5% annualized inflation rate and a 4% municipal bond rate. These projections do not assume any tunnel construction, which would raise capital costs by two to three times.

My original Excel spreadsheet used for these calculations is available upon request by e-mail: nycroads@yahoo.com

Oyster Bay-Rye Bridge

The proposed improvement would be built from NY 135 (Seaford-Oyster Bay Expressway) at EXIT 14 (NY 25 / Jericho Turnpike) in Syosset, NY, north to I-95 (New England Thruway) at EXIT 21 (I-287 / Cross Westchester Expressway) in Rye, NY. It is assigned the I-287 designation as it would be a southerly extension of the existing I-287.

CAPITAL COSTS

Based on the following construction costs:

  • 6.5 miles of twin three-lane trestles and a full shoulder on each (@ $350 million per mile * 50% local premium) =  $2.844 billion
  • 1.0 mile of a six-lane cable-stay bridge with full shoulders (@ $1.0 billion * 50% local premium)  =  $1.500 billion
  • 8.5 miles of six-lane freeway, Syosset-Oyster Bay approach (@ $175 million per mile, including interchange at NY 25A * 50% local premium) = $1.859 billion
  • 1.5 miles of six-lane freeway, Rye approach (@ $400 million per mile, including interchange improvements at I-95 in Rye * 50% local premium) = $750 million

TOTAL CAPITAL COST: $8.044 billion

SOFT COSTS (e.g., design, legal, inspection): $2.000 billion

CONTINGENCY COSTS (10% of construction and soft costs): $1.004 billion

INTEREST COSTS:

Based on the issuance of $11.048 billion in 30-year bonds at 4% interest (coupon paid semi-annually), and assuming straight-line capital depreciation:\

  • Annual interest expense = $441,925,000

TOTAL INTEREST COST: $13.258 billion (over 30 years)

MAINTENANCE COSTS:

Assume maintenance cost of $10 million in year 1, rising 2.5% per year thereafter.

TOTAL MAINTENANCE COST: $439 million (over 30 years)

REVENUES

Based on AADT = 90,000 with 10% large trucks and buses, assuming 75% MTA/NYSTA EZ-Pass, 10% non-NY EZ-Pass, and 10% pay-by-mail; also assuming toll is double that of the Bronx-Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridges.

  • Annual revenue (year 1) = $672,373,800

TOTAL REVENUE: $29.519 billion (over 30 years, assuming 2.5% annual toll inflation)

30-YEAR SURPLUS (DEFICIT): $4.774 billion

N.B. Each 25-basis-point in interest rates would increase the 30-year cost by $828.6 million.

Kings Park-Westport Bridge

The proposed improvement would be built from the Sagtikos State Parkway / Southern State Parkway interchange in Bay Shore, NY north to CT 15 (Merritt Parkway) in Westport, CT. It is assigned a hypothetical I-195 designation, as this designation is not used in either Connecticut or New York.

CAPITAL COSTS:

Based on the following construction costs:

  • 12.5 miles of twin three-lane trestles and a full shoulder on each (@ $350 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $6.563 billion
  • 1.0 mile of a six-lane cable-stay bridge with full shoulders (@ $1.0 billion * 50% local premium)  =  $1.500 billion
  • Six-lane conversion of existing Sunken Meadow and Sagtikos State Parkways to Interstate-level freeway (11.2 miles from Sunken Meadow State Park approach to Southern State Parkway @ $100 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $1.680 billion
  • Four- to six-lane conversion of existing Sherwood Island Connector (1.4 miles from Sherwood Island State Park approach to US 1, including reconstruction of I-95 EXIT 18 in Westport @ $200 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $420 million
  • 2.0 miles of new four-lane freeway from US 1 to Merritt Parkway, including new EXIT 43 in Westport (@ $150 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $450 million

TOTAL CAPITAL COST: $10.163 billion

SOFT COSTS (e.g., design, legal, inspection): $2.250 billion

CONTINGENCY COSTS (10% of construction and soft costs): $1.286 billion

INTEREST COSTS:

Based on the issuance of $14.149 billion in 30-year bonds at 4% interest (coupon paid semi-annually), and assuming straight-line capital depreciation:

  • Annual interest expense = $565,950,000

TOTAL INTEREST COST: $16.979 billion (over 30 years)

MAINTENANCE COSTS:

Assume maintenance cost of $16 million in year 1, rising 2.5% per year thereafter.

TOTAL MAINTENANCE COST: $702 million (over 30 years)

REVENUES

Based on AADT = 65,000 with 10% large trucks and buses, assuming 75% MTA/NYSTA EZ-Pass, 10% non-NY EZ-Pass, and 10% pay-by-mail; also assuming toll is four times that of the Bronx-Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridges.

  • Annual revenue (year 1) = $728,404,950

TOTAL REVENUE: $31.979 billion (over 30 years, assuming 2.5% annual toll inflation)

30-YEAR SURPLUS (DEFICIT): $149 million

N.B. Each 25-basis-point in interest rates would increase the 30-year cost by $1.061 billion. The 30-year surplus increases to $1.238 billion if there is no freeway construction north of US 1 [Boston Post Road] in Westport, though may reduce usage of the bridge.

Shoreham-New Haven Bridge

The proposed improvement would be built from the current end of Suffolk CR 46 (William Floyd Parkway) in Shirley (Fire Island), NY north to I-95 (Connecticut Turnpike) at EXIT 53 (Branford Connector) in Branford, CT. It is assigned the I-91 designation as it would be a southerly extension of the existing I-91. (On the Connecticut side of the bridge, I-91 would be routed along I-95 from New Haven to Branford.)

CAPITAL COSTS:

Based on the following construction costs:

  • 18.0 miles of twin two-lane trestles and a full shoulder on each (@ $250 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $6.750 billion
  • 1.0 mile of a four-lane cable-stay bridge with full shoulders (@ $800 million * 50% local premium)  =  $1.200 billion
  • 1.5 miles of four-lane freeway, Shoreham approach (@ $125 million per mile north of NY 25A * 50% local premium) = $281 million
  • Additional interchange improvements along existing William Floyd Parkway (Suffolk CR 46; 6.6 miles from I-495 north to NY 25A) = $200 million
  • Upgrade existing William Floyd Parkway (Suffolk CR 46; 9.1 miles from I-495 south to Smith Point Park, including reconstruction of NY 27 [Sunrise Highway] EXIT 58, @ $200 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $1.365 billion
  • 3.0 miles of four-lane freeway, New Haven (Branford) approach (@ $200 million per mile, including interchange improvements at I-95 EXIT 53 in Branford * 50% local premium)  = $900 million

TOTAL CAPITAL COST: $10.696 billion

SOFT COSTS (e.g., design, legal, inspection): $2.500 billion

CONTINGENCY COSTS (10% of construction and soft costs): $1.183 billion

INTEREST COSTS:

Based on the issuance of $14.516 billion in 30-year bonds at 4% interest (coupon paid semi-annually), and assuming straight-line capital depreciation:

  • Annual interest expense = $580,635,000

TOTAL INTEREST COST: $17.419 billion (over 30 years)

MAINTENANCE COSTS:

Assume maintenance cost of $15 million in year 1, rising 2.5% per year thereafter.

TOTAL MAINTENANCE COST: $659 million (over 30 years)

REVENUES

Based on AADT = 40,000 with 10% large trucks and buses, assuming 75% MTA/NYSTA EZ-Pass, 10% non-NY EZ-Pass, and 10% pay-by-mail; also assuming toll is four times that of the Bronx-Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridges.

  • Annual revenue (year 1) = $597,665,600

TOTAL REVENUE: $26.239 billion (over 30 years, assuming 2.5% annual toll inflation)

30-YEAR SURPLUS (DEFICIT): ($6.354 billion)

N.B. Each 25-basis-point in interest rates would increase the 30-year cost by $1.089 billion. The 30-year deficit declines to $3.051 billion if there is no freeway conversion of Suffolk CR 46 from I-495 south to Smith Point County Park.)

Eastern Long Island Sound Crossing

The proposed improvement would be built from the current end of I-495 (Long Island Expressway) in Riverhead, NY north to I-95 near EXIT 1 (RI 3) in Hopkinton, RI.

CAPITAL COSTS:

Based on the following construction costs:

  • 12.5 miles of twin two-lane trestles and a full shoulder on each (@ $250 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $4.688 billion
  • 1.0 mile of a four-lane cable-stay bridge with full shoulders (@ $800 million * 50% local premium) = $1.2 billion
  • 32.0 miles of four-lane freeway, Riverhead-Orient Point approach (@ $100 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $4.800 billion
  • 3.0 miles of four-lane freeway, Plum Island (@ $50 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $225 million
  • 6.0 miles of four-lane freeway, Fishers Island (@ $75 million per mile * 50% local premium) = $675 million
  • 13.0 miles of four-lane freeway, Watch Hill-Westerly (Rhode Island) approach (@ $75 million per mile, including construction of a new EXIT 1A on I-95 in Hopkinton, RI * 50% local premium) = $1.463 billion

TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST: $13.050 billion

SOFT COSTS (e.g., design, legal, inspection): $3.000 billion

CONTINGENCY COSTS (10% of construction and soft costs): $2.408 billion

INTEREST COSTS:

Based on the issuance of $18.458 billion in 30-year bonds at 4% interest (coupon paid semi-annually), and assuming straight-line capital depreciation:

  • Annual interest expense = $738,300,000

TOTAL INTEREST COST: $22.149 billion (over 30 years)

REVENUES:

Based on AADT = 25,000 with 10% large trucks and buses, assuming 75% MTA/NYSTA EZ-Pass, 10% non-NY EZ-Pass, and 10% pay-by-mail; also assuming toll is five times that of the Bronx-Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridges.

  • Annual revenue (year 1) = $413,884,000

TOTAL REVENUE: $18.171 billion (over 30 years)

30-YEAR SURPLUS (DEFICIT): ($23.270 billion)

N.B. Each 25-basis-point in interest rates would increase the 30-year cost by $1.384 billion. The cost of the Long Island approach may be reduced by using the existing Suffolk CR 48 right-of-way, while the cost of the Rhode Island approach may be reduced by using the existing right-of-way for RI 78 (Veterans Way).

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